Sunday 18 November 2012

Daily write-up - Nov 18th

Day 3 of the Cheltenham open meeting and after a dry night, the ground is now officially soft.
Bearing in mind how it was riding yesterday, my feeling is that it will be very sticky today (as it begins to dry out a little). We therefore need to ensure that was are on horses with no stamina doubts…

Elsewhere, there is the Southern National meeting at Fontwell – plus meetings at Punchestown and Cork in Ireland.

I did have a quick look at the Fontwell card as I though the main race might yield a bet. However nothing really grabbed me – though I do think that Quentin Collonges could take the beating – even off top weight – provided he is fully tuned on his seasonal debut…

Over in Ireland, there are some serious horses on show…
At Punchestown, it will be fascinating to see whether Oscars Well can confirm the promise of his fencing debut.
He may only be facing 3 rivals – but they are all pretty decent – with Baily Green going for his 8th win on the bounce ! I think his sequence might be ended today though, as I expect Oscars Well to come through today’s test….

The Morgiana has an even smaller field competing – and in truth, it can probably be boiled down to a match – but what a match !
Hurricane Fly on his seasonal debut, against Go Native…
I was really taken by Go Native on is recent comeback flat runs. All of the old ability still seems to be in place –and that was pretty significant ability…
That said, Hurricane Fly is a bit of a freak. Probably the most talented hurdler we’ve seen in the last decade. I would expect him to show his class once more today…

Finally, a quick mention for Champagne Fever, who makes his hurdling debut in the opener at Cork.
He was a tenacious winner of the bumper at last seasons Cheltenham festival – and probably even more impressive when taking the championship bumper at the Punchestown festival, in atrocious conditions.
I would expect him to take very high rank amongst this seasons novice hurdlers – and today’s test should really be a formality for him, provided he jumps OK.
He is priced up at 1/5 – but that is a much better rate of interest than on offer at any of the high street banks ;)


So, onto a preview of today’s action at Cheltenham…

1:10

The card kicks off with a good quality novice chase, in which Captain Conan has been put in an even money favourite, to make a successful chasing debut…
There is no doubt that he is a very decent sort – and he represents strong connections – but he didn’t strike me as from the absolute top draw last season and I think there might be some mileage taking him on today…
He certainly faces strong opposition, headed by Sire De Grugy…
He was a 148 rated hurdler, who made an impressive start to his chasing career, with a comfortable victory at Kempton, a month ago. However, he only won that race as he should have done – and he has always seemed a better horse on a flat track.
I respect his chance – but am prepared to oppose him today.
Third Intention had virtually the same rating as Sir De Grugy over hurdles – but he is a year younger (so should be open to a little more improvement) – and is likely to be better suited to today’s undulating track.
He is also not short of stamina – having won over 2m4f – an asset that should stand him in good stead this afternoon.
He made his chasing debut at the October Cheltenham meeting but ultimately had to give best to one of today’s rival – His Excellency.
Third Intention looked to be running all over that one, approaching the final fence - but just didn’t find as much as the winner up the hill.
My expectation is that with the run behind him, he will reverse the placings today.
The other one in the field worth a mention, is Rebel Rebellion. He battled on well for victory on his chasing debut at Exeter a few weeks ago. However, the form of that race doesn’t look quite strong enough to take today’s contest and Rebel Rebellion picks up a 4lb penalty for that win.
I can see him running well – he is a good jumper and has abundant stamina – but I don’t think he should be good enough to win today.

0.5pt win Third Intention 7/1


1:45

A huge field – and plenty with chances. A deal of luck is likely to be required and so I’ve given us 3 (small) bites at the cherry…
First up, is Hada Men. He was a big improver for Brian Ellison last season, but has switched stables again over the summer and is now with my new favourite trainer – Venetia Williams ;)
Hada Men was a very decent horse last season . He was a relative late comer to the hurdling game but proved a revelation in the early part of this year, progressing from finishing third in a novice hurdle at Newcastle in February (on only his second outing over hurdles) to winning the fixed brush hurdle final at Haydock in April…
I clearly remember watching him win the big race that day  - and I honestly didn’t think he had got a chance, with a circuit to go. He was at the back of the field and under pressure - but he just kept finding and finding…
Based on that performance, today’s stiffer track and softer ground should hold no fears for him – just don’t expect to see him involved until the race is nearly over !!
Rather than back him EW (his running style is going to require more than the usual amount of luck), I’ve decide to have split stake savers on 2 of our old friends…
Captain Sunshine let us down big time when refusing to race at Exeter on Wednesday. I really fancied him that day (admittedly, due in part to the poor opposition he faced) – but I think he is worth a chance to redeem himself today.
He had looked talented and progressive to that point and provided he doesn’t show any temperament issues today – I think he will run a very big race.
The other one I want onside –and this one is far more speculative- is Fishoutofwater…
He last ran in Loch Ba’s chase at Kempton – when he was very well backed – but didn’t particularly seem to relish jumping the fences…
Switching him back to hurdles seems like a smart move – and he is actually quite well handicapped in this discipline…
As I mentioned when he ran at Kempton, I feel the horse needs soft ground – which he will get today. He will also get the assistance of a very capable amateur –who will take 10lb off his back…
He could easily bomb out completely – but I also think he has a bit of a chance.
At 50/1, he is certainly worth a small risk…

0.5pt win Hada Men 16/1
0.25pt win Captain Sunshine 14/1
0.25pt win Fishoutofwater 50/1


2:20

The defection of Spritner Sacre has robbed this race of pretty much all of it’s appeal.
I’m sure I’m not the only one who was really looking forward to seeing jump racings equivalent of Frankel, strut his stuff at Prestbury park.
But alas, the rain of Friday evening has persuaded Nicky Henderson to swerve today’s race – and I can understand his reasoning…
Sptinert Sacre has hopefully got a long and fruitful season ahead of him; the last thing you want to do is leave it all behind on your seasonal debut. The combination of the heavy ground and having to concede weight to all his rivals could have seen Sprinter Sacre have a much harder race than would be desirable.
There will be other days…
Unfortunately, his defection has left us with a bit of a nothing race –which should be won by Wishful Thinking, almost by default…
He really only has one creditable opponent, in Doeslessthanme – and whilst that one should be better suited to the demands of today’s race, Wishful Thinking should just have too much class for him…
I bet there are one or two trainer feeling they have missed an opportunity to pick up a sizeable pot today – simply because they ran scared of one horse…
An expensive lesson…


2:50

There are also a number of defections from the big race of the day – The Racing Post hurdle – including one of my tips, Vendor – and the race favourite, Darlan…
I’m disappointed to see Vendor taken out of the race as I think he had a live chance and was significantly over-priced.
Presumably Alan King was not happy with ground (though I was pretty confident he would go on it).
He defection of Darlan is also a blow – as it will result in a 25% reduction in the price of Olofi…
Whether I would have put up Olifi as an EW selection at 12/1, is a debatable point. I was also quite happy to take on Darlan – so all in all, not the best of early race developments…
Anyway, non of this detracts from the actual chance of Olofi – which I still feel is very good…
He was runner-up in this very race last season – though he is 6lb higher in the handicap today.
In truth, that shouldn’t be insurmountable – he was only 5 last season, so should be a little stronger this time round. Also, he bumped into a very well handicapped rival last season - hopefully he won’t be so unlucky today
Ofcourse that is very much a danger – and is almost the nature of the race. However, Olofi looks virtaually guaranteed to run  a big race and I will be very surprised if he is not there- or thereabouts s – at the end.
Looking at his rivals, then Cash and Go, Domination and Kazilan all have the potential to be much better than they are currently rated. However, I do wonder about today’s conditions - for the last 2, in particular…
The other one that really catches the eye, is Glam Garry. His participation almost looks bizarre (he was place in a 2m4f chase at the festival). However, I have the utmost respect for his trainer – and his last time out victory over 2m on the flat suggests that he might have sufficient pace for today’s test.
Whatever, I am very hopefully that Olofi will manage to get into a place at least today - and with a bit of luck, might even be able to get his head in front where it matters…

0.5pt EW Olofi 16/1 (pre R4)


3:25

I took a bit of a flyer issuing Coneygree as an early bird tip yesterday evening.
I fully expected him to be the subject of a sustained market plunge  - but that hasn’t really materialised…
Whilst he has been shortened from last night’s 12/1 to a best price of 8/1 – he is not that strong on Betfair –and that is the true barometer of a gamble…
There is still time however – and the key moments will be the 10 minutes or so before the off – then will we find out how strongly connections fancy him today…
I fancy him based on the sensational performance he put up last time out, on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter…
He was well backed that day and the money never looked in any danger, as he went from the front and just drew away form his rivals in the manner of a really talented horse.
Ofcourse, there is a world of difference between running away from novices at Uttoxeter and running away from novices at Cheltenham – but the impression he made was a deep one..
In truth, Coneygree is bred to be a bit special. He is a half brother to the stables very smart Carruthers- who won last years Hennessey in really gritty style.
Coneygree looks to have inherited his relative’s enthusiasm for racing and a fair chunk of his ability. Whether he is quite as good, we will find out more today…
In truth it is really difficult to get a proper handle on his rivals.
All of them are potentially talented and progressive – with maybe Fox Run and  Village Vic looking the best.
There is certainly a fair amount of guesswork involved in this one – but at the odds available last night, I figured Coneygree was worth a bet to prove first impressions correct…

Early bird: 1pt win Coneygree 12/1  



4:00

This is normally the best bumper run in the first half of the season – and whilst today’s field is smaller than normal, I fully expect the quality to still be there…
As with the previous race, there is precious little to go on form wise, so it is more a question of reading between the lines, when trying to figure out the most likely victor.
The Liquidator made a very encouraging debut at last seasons Fairyhouse festival and I suspect he will take the beating today. However, 7/2 is not a price to be taking in a race such as this – with so many unknown quantities in opposition…
The 2 that caught my eye, were Monkey Kingdom and Westward Point.
I can’t honestly figure out why AP is on the latter and not the former – and reckon it can be read in one of two ways…
Either Rebecca Curtis really fancied the chances of Monkey Kingdom and wants Patrick Corbett to take an additional 10lb off the horses back, to hopefully give him an all important edge.
Or…  
Rebecca Curtis doesn’t fancy the chances of Monkey Kingdom and as Warren Greatrex really fancies the chances of Westward Point, he has persuaded AP to get off Monkey Kingdom and ride his instead.
You pays your money – you makes your choice ! For what’s it’s worth, I’ve backed Monkey Kingdom ;)
I’ve also have a tiny bet on Anonis…
Over 600 days off the track after making a highly promising debut. Margaret Mullins can train bumper horses – and she really didn’t need to travel quite so far to get a run into this one. Interesting, me thinks…

Here’s hoping for a great day !

TVB.

2 comments:

  1. HI ANDREW

    FANTASTIC AS ALWAYS TWO GREAT TIPS KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK

    BEST REGARDS DEREK

    ReplyDelete
  2. I've had worse days Derek - that's for sure ;)

    ReplyDelete