Daily write-up - Nov 2nd

As has been the case for most of this week; whilst today’s 2 domestic NH cards are interesting – finding winners at either looks a decidedly tricky proposition…

I was really hoping that I could find something in the big chase at Wetherby (off at 2:00) – but no matter which way I turn it, no solid selection will fall out !

If forced to stake my colours to the mast, I would say that Tiger O’Toole is the most likely winner.

A second season novice, he ran a tremendous race last time out, forcing the potentially top novice, Fingals Bay, to pull out all the stops at Chepstow. If he can build on that, he will take all the beating…

However, as a virtual novice, there is a danger that the fences – or the strength of opposition – will find him out. In truth, he is more likely to fall or capitulate, than he is to win – so at 5/1 he is opposable.

Nez Rouge is another interesting contender, as he could be anything.
He won his sole chase very easily but he beat little that day and it is a little concerning that his previous victory was in claiming hurdle.

I feel he has been priced up primarily on the reputation of his trainer and whilst he could win, odds of 11/2 make little appeal…

Lease Lend should be the solid one – if it weren’t for the fact that he might suffer from ‘the bounce’ ! He ran a cracking race last time out over course and distance and a repeat of that would see him go very close. However, that was his first race in 18 months - and there is always the danger that it will have sent him backwards rather than brought him on.

If that isn’t the case and he has progressed from that outing, he will take the beating…

Of the others: I could see Gansey running a big race – though he shouldn’t be able to beat Lease Lend. Battle Group could almost be considered a bet to nothing, as it is not difficult to see him coming there swinging up the home straight. However, it is very difficult to see him going through with his effort, so the chances of connecting on the win part of the bet would be pretty slim…

Bless the Wing is potentially interesting – particularly if there is money for him. In theory, he is not that well handicapped – but he is reasonably unexposed and could well have potential for improvement. If he is disputing favouritism at the off, he will go very close.

Darna is another intriguing runner – and one who could also go close, if he is right and the race goes to suit. He makes some appeal at 10/1 – but he is a risky proposition.

Similarly, Drever Route is potentially interesting at 14/1. However he has not seen a race course for almost 2 years, so his fitness would have to be taken on trust.

On balance however, I am happy to take a watching brief on what is a fascinating race but one that is ultimately just a bit too tricky to resolve.

In the following race, Ruby Walsh has his only ride of the day, on board Sametegal.

A winner at Engheim in his native France, it will be no surprise if he is too good for his rivals today – though his price will be prohibitive…

 

Over at Uttoxeter, I spent a little time looking at the handicap chase which will be off at 3:30.

The one that caught my eye, was Rigadin De Beauchene. He threatened to be a decent sort last season – when he got his jumping right ! I suspect that he might ultimately prove to be better than his current rating – and a quote of 9/1 is quite tempting.

However, I suspect he will be better with his first run of the season under his belt, so I’m going to pass on him today – but obviously watch him closely !

Aside from the domestic action, there is an excellent card at Down Royal in Northern Ireland.

I said in my introduction on the blog, that I would be looking to tip a little in Ireland this year.
I didn’t expect it to happen on day 2 – but when opportunity knocks…!

The race I have been drawn to, is the 2 mile handicap chase, which will be off at 3:40.

The market for this race, is headed by Pires, who was a comfortable winner last time out, when receiving a favourable mention on the blog.

He was quite impressive in victory that day – but the opposition didn’t amount to much and he has been hiked 13lb in the ratings for that victory.
I think he is beatable today – and the one I want to take him on with is Monastrell…

He was trained last season by Noel Meade but has switched into the care of David Christie this season.

On his seasonal debut at Ballinrobe a month ago, he travelled well until lack of fitness caught him out. That was slightly surprising as he has been at his best first time out in previous seasons. However, I’m hoping that the new training regime will see him peaking a race later this season !

Monastrell kept very good company last season, following his debut victory – but he didn’t manage to cut any ice at graded level. Back in handicaps today, I think it could be a different matter…

There are 2 reasons why Monastrell looks particularly interesting today: the first one can be found in the formbook.

On his seasonal debut at Naas last season, Monastrell won a decent novice chase in convincing fashion. The horse who finished eighth in that race – beaten 20 lengths – was non other that today’s favourite, Pires. Now I accept a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but Monastrell is actually 4lb better off today, for that 20 length victory – and is a 25/1 shot against Pires at 5/2…

The second reason, is more based on guesswork, on my behalf…

Monastrell moved into joint ownership over the summer and his new owner is a Thomas McKnight. My guess is that Mr. McKnight is a citizen of Northern Ireland – hence moving the horse to David Christie, who is based out of County Fermanagh, in the North.

If that is the case (and I don’t know for sure, I’m just putting 2 and 2 together and hoping I get 4 !), then it would make sense for a Northern Irish trainer and a Northern Irish owner, to target at race at the biggest meeting run all year, in the country.

The booking of the top class Andy Lynch, for his only ride of the day, seems to add weight to my theory that this is a bit of a plot…

I guess we will see (or not !) in the fullness of time.

Whatever, I think the horse had a decent chance based simply on what I can categorically read form the form book – with the ‘plot theory’ just adding a little juice !!

1pt win 0.5pt place Monastrell 25/1