NH racing today at Doncaster and Ludlow in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland…
Fairyhouse put on an all hurdle card – but there isn’t much that catches my eye there…
In truth, I’m not overly enamoured by the 2 UK meetings – however I’ve managed to find a tip at each: I would be optimistic that the first will win (granted a bit of luck); whilst if the second is going to win, the market is likely to tell us in advance..!
Onto the rationale then - starting with the ‘strong’ bet…
Ludlow 2:30
It may seem a little strange taking a relatively short price in a novice chase on a horse that has fallen on it’s last 2 outings – but that is what I’m doing here…
Simply, if Valmari jumps round – and runs to the level of form that she has exhibited in her 4 runs to date over fences, she should win.
First time up, she beat the now 137 rated Ackertac at Uttoxeter; on her second outing she was the only horse to give the 148 rated Houblon Des Obeaux a race at Worcester; her third run over fences was probably her best – even though it resulted in her first fall.
It took place at Newbury and she was in danger of giving the potentially top class Dynaste a race when she fell at the fourth last.
She was also a faller last time out, in the race won by Rajdhani Express at Kempton on Boxing day. However, that was again a much stronger race than today’s contest…
Obviously the 2 recent falls are a worry – but both came when Valmari was harried for the lead. I guess that is a possibility again today – but I would expect her to be able to make her own pace, and provided she doesn’t make any early mistakes, I would be hopeful she won’t be put under too much pressure in the closing stages.
The other slight concern I have is that she may be better fresh.
In addition to wining on her chasing debut, she also won on her hurdling debut last season.
In terms of dangers, then Queens Bay is the one that I would fear most – and she might be worth a small saver…
On balance however, I am more than happy to go with Valmari, safe in the knowledge that if she gets into a rhythm up front, she is the best horse in the race and will therefore take some passing !!
1pt win Valmari 11/4
Doncaster 1:40
In yesterday’s post race review, I touched on the importance of finding horses that were going to be backed – and I’m hopeful that Toby Belch will be such an animal today…
If he is, then I believe that he has the form in the book to go very close: however, if he is not, then he is unlikely to feature.
I’m optimistic that the former will prove to be the case – despite today being his seasonal debut and him not having a particularly good record fresh.
I have two reasons for thinking this: firstly, he will be wearing cheek pieces (often if horses are just being given a spin to blow away the cobwebs, aids – such as cheek pieces - are left off) and secondly, the booking of Robert Thornton (he is not a jockey that Henry Daly uses very often – but his all action style should be well suited to Toby Belch, who is a horse that can race lazily)…
In terms of form, then Toby Belch’s best run is probably his penultimate one at Leicester.
He finished second that day in a fair chase, suggesting that he was just about handicapped to win.
He started very sluggishly that day and was soon trailing the field. It therefore says much for his ability that he was able to come through and look the most likely winner at the second last. He ultimately paid the penalty for his early lethargy, but I would be hopeful that Robert Thornton would be wise to him trying to run the same way today.
The other big feature of the run at Leicester was the market confidence behind him.
He opened at 14/1 that day – but was backed into 11/4 favourite at the off. Connections clearly thought they had a well handicapped horse on their hands – off a mark just 2lb higher today, lets hope their confidence in him wasn’t misplaced !!
0.5pt win Toby Belch 10/1
Here’s hoping for a good day ahead !
TVB.
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